ConFuSiOn?

Hmmmmm, as the title suggests, I'm confused. Quite a bit happened today, but I can't really care, its like my thoughts are more precious to me than the material world and experiences that I just had today. Am I considered to be overemotional?

Well, yesterday a yAnZ just commented that my previous post was too serious, too 'hardcore reading' even to some of my friends. It set me in motion as to whether am I really that far apart from them? Hmm, I don't think I'm like that, just that maybe I think a lot? Although I have recently been reading a lot of serious works, it doesn't me that I can't click with others(and I'm definitely not eons apart). Ha, some form of self-grumbling I guess?

Not that I really care about the above, cause I'm like wondering am I a real pragmatic person or am I sentimental? Most people view me a very pragmatic, very logical as well as treasure a lot about gains and losses(being rational?), but am I. YEs, I know I might be someone who's always looking for ways to improve my marketability, as well as searching for a lot of gains in my life but I feel that there are a lot of stuff which I truly treasure that people don't know. Hmm, maybe some people do(I AM Absolutely unsure about this...)...... Haiz...Or is it because not a lot of people know me that well? Maybe I should be nicer and make friends with more people?

Hmm, I'm really confused, but I do know that I enjoyed the Korean movie, Windstruck. Although it left a milder impression on me than My Sassy Gal, but it was such a beautiful movie, with all the intricate links all so wonderfully woven up together. And the scene of all the wind wheels moving, oh it was just great, ultra fantastic! It really makes me wonder what will I do for someone I truly love, will I do all that. I guess I would=) Hmm, on the whole, I think windstruck is a much nicer fairy tale than my Sassy Gal, with all the ideas of fate, opportunity and hope all nicely joined together.....

ECONOMICS JOURNAL SERIES 1 - Oil

Hmm, I'm not too sure whether I should actually start with oil(I wanted to start with the foundations, things like mathematics vs linguistics, the role of Newton in influencing the fundamentals of Economics, evolution of Economics over the years...), but since its such an important issue and it appeared in today's Straits Times commentary, I feel that there is a need to discuss it.

The first big hoo-hah on oil recently is the rising oil prices. This has certainly caused people to be worried, as they are afraid that rising oil prices will lead to a general rise in products' prices and this might actually dampen the current recovery. Pessimists even feel that it will be serious enough to cause a global recession just like in the late 1970s.

However, I strongly think that these views are unfounded. The reasons behind the rise in oil prices now and then are completely different. In the past, it was a ploy by the OPEC cartel to threaten the western world(partly because of political issues and Israel) while now, it is more of a matter of demand far outstripping that of supply(although the Iraq war has done a good job of affecting some oil supplies, but it is not that significant). Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is willing to support the USA and help prevent further increases in oil prices should there be a need to(they are still able to produce more oil at cheaper prices than the rest of the world). In my opinion, the main reason behind the gradual rise in oil prices is due to consumers' confidence, just like how the belief that a country's currency is over-valued will eventually lead to a devaluation(this is pretty much like the collaspe of investors confidence during the 1997 Asian Financial crisis).

Anyway, as I have mentioned, it is a gradual rise in global oil prices, not a sudden huge increase. The fact that it is gradual means that people(the rational ones, who are usually the big bosses of corporations) are expecting it, and hence they are constantly readjusting their own prices as well as their expectations on production costs. In turn, by having the element of time on their side, they are able to restructure and improve certain production techniques to cut costs which might actually reduce the rise in commodities prices(this point might be dubious, as it is dependent on the industry). In short, because people are expecting it, they are already prepared for it(unlike the past).

Another point is that much of the demand for oil now is from USA and China, and that the former rapidly growing economies of ASEAN and East Asia are now demanding less oil than before. Since, global demand for oil is expected to rise sluggishly, as well as the availability of other kinds of energy, it is unlikely that the rise in oil prices will actually affect the world's economy that badly. In fact, I just feel that the current recovery might actually be dampen a little bit(I believe its less than 1%), and instead, other reasons(such as politics, and the whole talk about free trade) could actually be the real stopping force behind economic expansion.

Lastly, my own worries now for the world is the sustainability of the US economy(its debt, widening budget deficits and persistent trade deficits, low savings rate). If it suddenly crashes, or falls into a slump like Japan in the 1990s, it might spell doom for the rest of the world. Our hopes will then rise on East Asia and Europe to provide the guiding light in global economic recovery, well USA takes time out to reflect and cure its own economy.

Recollections of the past week

Yea, I'm glad that I'm home for a great long weekend ahead. The last week was uneventful (very very little sai kang...almost zero) and I just spent the whole week reading(finished 2 books, about to finish a third).

As usual, I talk rubbish with doggie, but I had the chance to visit Jurong regional library (FANTASTIC!), and borrowed more books (to kill time next week). While, the most happening thing was that I moved to Shin Eik's bunk(immediately after he disrupted) and so now I'm back in a bunk with a working tv.

That just sums up almost my entire week. Guess the only reason why I'm speeding through this is because I want to spend more time on typing other issues. I think that it will be a great idea for me to type every week on some economic/education issues(I must prepare myself for work in future?), and hopefully air my views on them and maybe a few years down the road I will finally be able to know how shallow my thoughts are and realise how much I've matured since now. Ok, just a simple post every week. Hope no one gets bored. And I promise I will try to write like Krugman, keeping readers interested and not bore you with jargon.

Anyway, I'm really looking forward to tomorrow. What CX told me the other time is currently flashing through my head, and I must say that I am a bit confused as well as scared? But I realised that some things must be done, or else I might regret them for life. Anyway no harm trying too right? Oh yes, thanks CX for being such a great listener to some of my troubles, and for helping me with certain thorny issues. Guess I owe you a BIG one.

Some thoughts over the weeks,,,,,

Hmm, I just felt that there are some issues which I need to express my thoughts on, more of a reflection on many ideas and thoughts that I had in my bunk....

Firstly, the recently concluded exercises have definitely given me a fresh insight of how regulars work and stuff. Being a PA to a major then (and seeing others been PAs to stars and crabs) was really enlightening, and also brought me to the harsh reality of what people actually define as efficiency, capability and performance. I'm like having mixed feelings about whether I will end up like the rest of the system in future? Or will I be able to carry on sticking to my convictions?

Secondly, while I was stoning in bunk, I suddenly realised that I actually have that few close friends, people whom I will confide in and trust? Or are they my true friends and not just my companions? I wouldn't have pondered over this if it wasn't because of the fact that I started to feel lonely, as I realised that I won't have the chance to meet up with some of my closest (to some extent, my best) friends due to work commitments on both sides. Its not really something that I can fault them on but what I'm really hoping is that once we've finished doing what we are supposed to do, we can meet up once more....

Well, Doggie gave me some insights, telling me that seperation and blar blar might be good and is a test of friendship and stuff.... Guess he has some point there.....

Thirdly, I was just wondering about my future, of whether I will have the commitment and ability to keep working in the same organisation for 10-20 years of my life? Maybe I would if they give me a salary >$10000 a month and it is real slack. But I really want to work in the Shenton Way area, especially since 5 of my dream organisations are all located so close to each other. Anyway, the reason why I refuse or think that I should not stay in the same company for more than 6 years is because I am afraid that I will actually fall into the trap of a nice and comfortable safety zone, hence making me into one of those old fogies, or even worse, unmarketable and retrenched during periods of recession. Hmm, i think that is totally horrid. Thinking about all this just made me realised about a certain organisation X as well as the fact that anything more than 6 is too much for me and that its time for me to move on(sorry for the whole irony, but I think that anything that pays me really well will motivate me to carry on with it even though I'm in it for more than 12 years).

Fourthly, recently I've been reading up on all those economics stuff (Smith, Malthus and Co.), while I feel guilty as I ought to start reading up on finace, which has certainly reshaped my thinking on ideologies, pragmatism, logic, paradigms and economic institutions. For anyone interested, Krugman is an interesting guy whose stuff are easy to follow while I personally think that you should look for Galbraith and Stiglitz for all those hard core reading that really will shape and influence your thinking. For the really more adventurous, try Adam Smith's works which seriously challenge your language (and your eyes).

Ok guess I've blog more than enough for a day. This is what I will call as verbal diarrhoea.

=P

P.S> I almost forgotten, but I will like to point out to readers of this blog that there's a reason behind my blog's name. Haha, yup, it encompasses what me and one of my buddies actually aim for in life. Have fun (isn't it obvious?????)

YupZ, my Blog

Hmm, yes this is my blog. I have actually been wondering whether or not to have a blog ever since jan(?? could have been earlier??)but I kept reconsidering and pondering over other issues and stuff so I guess forfeited my option of having one until now! Yes! I'm not very sure whether this is something which I truly want, or it could just simply have been just some blog mania in which I am caught within.

Haha, but I guess a blog could just be what I need for the next 2 years, not only as a personal diary, but also as something which I could use to practise my language and ensure that it does not deteriorate until a ridiculuosly low level. And I have also decided, if you haven't realised this by now, that I shall consistently blog in good old 'O'/'A' level standard of English. It's not that I'm a maniac(or a crazy academic/perfectionist), its just that I've better maintain my English or else my university will kick me out. For those who are wondering, let me post what Dr. Bowkett actually mailed me (actually its Selina, my sorta manager cum representative). Here is how it goes:

We have had mixed experiences with past students who have taken a two and a half year break before starting their degree work and we shall be reviewing our policy on this for the future. We have been especially concerned about the sharp deterioration in standards of oral English for some students over the course of their National Service training.

And here's another excerpt:
...he takes an IELTS English test in 2006, not earlier than
July 2006, and achieves a result with scores of at least 7 in each section of that test.


All these means that I must maintain my level of english and take a test that costs $280 in july. How suck thumb!!

Ok, thats about all. Hahah

welCum

heya,
this is my first post. Din't really know what to type so i'm just trying things out