Economic Issues - PIH and LCH

I’ve finally got some inspiration for an economic issue, and this time its going to be different as am I going to introduce some economic ideas to you through some real life issue that all NSFs are actually talking about.

Yes, there is a rumour that there will be a $150 rise in allowance for all NSF. Now, initially when I heard about it, I thought it was total crap. I mean, lets face it, for the amount of work effort that we are putting in (or that I am putting in), it does not justify a pay rise of that amount. This is especially so since the SAF has recently upped NSF allowance (roughly 5-6 years back) to the extremely decent amount that we are enjoying now. Furthermore, shouldn’t the government be focusing on reducing spending, so as to cut down on the budget? I personally estimated that the pay rise will cost the SAF around $72 million a year, and that is very significant especially if you put that money into use in healthcare or upgrading of human capital.

However, I’ve just vaguely remembered about two concepts which I came across – permanent income hypothesis (PIH) and the life-cycle income hypothesis (LCH). I’m personally very proud of this 2 ideas as I’ve used them in my wonderful Cambridge entrance exams that actually secured my place.

The idea of PIH came from Milton Friedman, and it suggests that consumers consume a constant fraction of their expected income, or permanent income. Permanent income refers to income which is long run, hence it means people adjust their spending behaviour on what they expect to earn over a certain period of time, and not just when there are sudden short-run changes in actual income. Hence, this splurging by the government could be there to encourage spending by NSFs on products (especially in the entertainment and teen industries), which will then further bolster growth and boost AD.

Now, the LCH is an idea that I find more pertinent. Basically Modigliani, who suggests that people try their best to stabilise consumption over a lifetime, proposed it. I mean this is true because people do save for their retirement so that they can consume later then. Again, this means people will base their lifetime spending (as well as spending at a particular period of time) on how much they are earning. So, the reduction in NS could have caused some to expect their lifetime income to decline (close to $6000 for officers), and hence the pay rise is just to compensate and even things out so that people’s consumption patterns will not be affected.

Now, again I suspect the idea of the allowance rise reinforces the idea of PIH more than LCH (which I think will be quite insignificant). But again, I think that the money will be better spent on other areas. Worse still, the government justified the half-year reduction in NS by saying that they are expecting more enlistees a year for the next decade (around 3000 more), meaning that instead of just re-transferring cash, they will be spending more!

Anyway, I think there will be a bigger budget deficit, but if the SAF wants to scrimp there are 1001 ways in which it can save. So lets not care about it especially since as an individual I will love it if I gain more cash!

Anyway, I've just briefly touched on PIH and LCH. For a more detailed account and better understanding, read up on any standard year 1 macroeconomics book. Hope I've dint misinterpret the ideas. =)

ChoiCes I'm MakInG........

Ok, I’ve decided not to blog about economics for this week as I have absolutely no inspiration. Maybe when I start to read through this huge stack of economics notes, then maybe I will have some stuff to write about?

So I’ve decided to explain about some aspects of my life, which is why I’m pursuing my education at Cambridge as well as why I’m taking up MOE EMS.

I know that most of you are like wondering why I’m taking up EMS, cause you all are shocked that I’m being a teacher instead of an economist/administrator. Ok, at that period of time you must say that I was experiencing a lot of ups and downs. Basically I applied for quite a few scholarships, got rejected by firefly (well thankfully cause I think EDB and JTC are the only good ones there), GIC and MAS ignored me (looking back, it could be because they never received it and I think that’s very very possible as I did not call to double check), SPH played punk and said that they are putting me on hold until 2005/06 (crap!), DBS rejected me (though they put me on waiting…..) and finally PSC (my dream organisation!) pushed me to MOE (well at least I got something as well as met the board). Sp when I went for my MOE interview, I was pretty upset/irritated/anguished and so on. Haha, but Selina, my scholarship officer in charge was real nice and friendly, and they certainly treated me like a first class citizen, sending registered mail, giving me name cards and so on. It was quite good to feel like I was the king. Anyway, I went into the room, was so disappointed that my interviewers were small fries (yes, I was real jealous then cause ZX was meeting the perm sec while I was meeting some small director?). Well, I thought I had an ‘attitude’ in the room, and I was literally criticising our education system. And I know that how I answer the question of how I would motivate and unmotivated student was total bullshit, cause I just ramble on and on and I got confused (they got confused as well) and I thought I was talking crap as well. Haha. Anyway I seriously thought that I performed badly.
Well, the weirdest thing was that I was super confident that they will offer me EMS(Education Merit Scholarship, and it’s the biggest scholarship that MOE gives), and I was telling my mum not to worry. And I was right cause I found out at noon from Selina that they are indeed offering me EMS (it was super funny, cause all the rest of my friends waited for weeks to get a response while I got one in hours). Well, I think my dad was happy about it and I was quite ok with it as well.

Ok, I bet you guys after understanding the circumstances, which I got it, will realise that I was desperate for any organisation to sponsor me overseas. Yes I am. Its true that I do not want to study in Singapore, and obviously I want to study in Cambridge (I will elaborate later). Anyway, I must say that I am getting more and more impressed with MOE. The meeting with the permanent secretary really showed me the opportunities that I will have in the organisation, as well as some of the challenges. Hmm, to put it, I have been emotionally bribed by MOE, especially by their staff who totally impressed me with their dedication. Of course, I’m real glad that they were all so willing to intercede on my behalf for my place in Cambridge, but I guess they themselves also have their own vested interests at stake.

Anyway, EMS is not that bad. And just to let you know I’m not trained to be a teacher! My job is more of an educator, i.e. I will be (hopefully and quickly) promoted to leadership roles in the ministry. For example, becoming a principal or a director. Now, I think that thrills me because the thought that I might mould a school/department’s direction is really exciting. I admit that I think I can’t teach, but I think I will love a job that involves policy making. Policymaking (some of you have already heard this from me) is a job which I will like, and I think that having such a good opportunity to jump into the driving seat is real good. Ok, I will prefer a corporate world, but I need to say that MOE is now revamping itself and it is now becoming to look more like the private sector. And of course, I do have a personal aim of imparting certain skills to students as well as kick-starting an economics Olympiad for students if possible (I think it is, considering the number of scholars I know studying Economics). Anyway, my bond period will allow me to complete some stuff that I’m currently doing, as well as allow me to pick up management skills. If I happen to dislike my job and move on to the private sector, some of the skills are certainly relevant and I have faith that my degree will more than make up for it (Economics is pertinent everywhere). Moreover, (as some of you will know), I am also doing an actuary course now (its super tough lor……I’m fainting already) so as not to waste my 2 years and 2 months in NS, and I think that with this qualification, I will be able to find a job much easier in future. So I don’t think that I will put myself at a disadvantage if I take up EMS.

Ok, so I guess some of you will finally understand why I’m taking up EMS. If you still have any queries, feel free to drop any comments =P

I shall now elaborate on my choice of institution. Let me start by giving you my personal rankings of universities in the field of Economics.

1.   Chicago (its clearly the best in terms of research and public choice theory, policymaking and   so on. Furthermore, it has some of the best professors there and the environment there greatly supports economic work and I like the way they emphasise econometrics as well as mathematical elements)

2. Cambridge (Modern economics came from there, with the works of people like Ricardo and Marshall. It’s at the forefront of economic research, right up until Keynes and Robinson. The tutorial system there is fantastic, something which I love. Best of all, the system there contrasts Chicago’s one, in the sense that they tend to be more wordy)

3. MIT (Its great place, the atmosphere is fantastic, and they have professors there who are at the forefront of economic research in a lot of areas. Paul Krugman was from there, but I think he changed to Princeton recently. Solow is still there, and he has certainly done much to shape my thinking. Barro is there as well if I’m not wrong)

4. Columbia (Its fantastic, especially for international economics as well as public economics. Some of my most favourite economists are there, Bhagwati, Stiglitz, Edmund Phelps. They have certainly played a huge role in influencing the development of economics for the past few decades)

5. Stanford (I love the sun, and the fact that it allows me to do double degree. Well, Romer is from there, and I heard the teaching staff there is great)

6. Princeton (A world class teaching stuff as well as world class economists. The student environment there is great as well)

7. U Penn –Wharton (They got quite a lot of good economics tutors, but not stunning economists. But I think they are really good at financial economics, considering that their Business School is world number ONE)

8. London School of Economics (It’s the next best British institution for the discipline, with a lot of leading economists and tutors. Furthermore, it’s a school which places great emphasis on Economics)

9.UC-Berkeley (the teaching staff and environment there are fantastic and I think they focus a lot on economics application as well)

10. Yale (it’s a great US school, just that it is not that renowned for its economic courses. There are also few distinguished economists there, but the overall environment that it provides is great)

Ok, I must admit that the above suggests that I will prefer Chicago, but I rejected my place there. Well, its partially about the living environment, but most importantly, I think by going Cambridge first, its easier to get firs-class and its also my dream school. Doing my foundation there will also train me in writing, so that when I do my graduate studies in the States I can write my papers better. And I don’t think I will neglect my math as well. If all goes well, combing Cambridge and Chicago might produce an outcome in which I will be able to see both schools of thought as well as even fuse them together.
I hope I have explain some of my choices in my life. Hope you all will understand me better. =)

NightS Off

I'm starting to enjoy nights off again. The last 2 ones have absolutely been fantastic!

For those of you who don't understand (aka females), every tuesday and thursday night I get to book out and wander around in civilisation (some camps is wed, so it all depends...). So well, last Tuesday was a real great day. Firstly, I met Shin Eik and we talked about some issues. Hmm, its kind of interesting that even though we just know each other for only around a month, we do enjoy each other's company. Oh, and since the Local Teaching Scholars were all hanging around there, I saw yonghui, aiping, shi hui and fangxi. Quite nice since I haven't seen some of them for such a long time... Hmm, and I was just wondering how amazing it will be if PC was to treat us to pizza on that day......maybe mj and co. could have known more. Anyway, I watch King Arthur, and thot it was mediocre only. Hmm, then I saw Zhonglin, my Bmt buddy and it turned out edwin was at pizza hut too! Life's a real joke. But I guess the people whom I saw that night was enough to make me feel so happy (I think it was my happiest nights off)

The next day was a Wednesday and I happily booked out for my TSPC rehearsal. Had a good talk with Selina (and all those names that I wrote above).  Hmm, saw some of my fellow scholars and I think some are real nice. Of course, I also saw Yi Fang and Kah Yin, who both were with me at the meet up session with the perm. sec. Well, it was a simple event but it did set me thinking....

And thursday was real cool too. PC treated us to pizza hut, and had an interesting time trying to spot Ron's gf, and I saw jingxuan too. Oh yea, spotted gary as well. And then I saw Hong and Xuan. I almost din't recognized them at all, but in the end we met up and talked a while as well. its real amazing how I'm starting to see all my eastern friends in jurong point. Haha, NS is like an opportunity for people to explore the west.

I don't really feel like blogging today, maybe when I have sorted out my thoughts then I will blog more. But I do know that I need to find someone whom I can talk to, and share some of my troubles, cause I'm actually still very confused now........

 

Clarification

I was just asking around about what does people think about my 'poem', and I recieved almost the same response from all. All of you DOUBTED that I wrote i, as the words that were used were so 'flowery' and it put across a real strong message (despair vs hope). I still remember somebody even describing it as something written by someone who has just being dumPEd!
 
So let me clarify this, I wrote the whole thing myself (actually its typed), so please don't try to find it in yahoo/google or whatever search engine. But I must admit that those words don't just flowed out of me like that, they were pretty much driven by emotions (actually there's a HUGE story behind it). To briefly say, lets just say that I felt kind of down and emotionally deranged and I wanted to make windmills for fun (or is it wind wheels? I just know chinese its called fenglun). The worse thing was that people around me couldn't understand me at all.......So I just expressed myself using some words. Anyway, I've since recovered especially after some heartwarming talks with a few good friends of mine which helped me to iron some things out and realised that things ain't that bleak! Haha

BroThErHooD

Yea, I just watched brotherhood and I must say that I was stunned with the movie. I'm totally amazed that I was quite shocked with the whole show, so let me elaborate on it all since I'm so free now.
 
When I first heard about the show, and saw all those trailers (on tv mobile as well as on MRT), I thought that it will be a touching show about 2 brothers whose lives and relationship got affected by the war. When I read movie reviews in both New Paper and 8 Days, they described the show as being 'technically exemplary', but it lacks depth in terms of character development as well as being an allegory about the Korean peninsular. Both gave it 3 and a half star, so I just thought it was just a star-studded movie with a pathetic storyline.
 
Now, basically I din't expect too much from the show, so when I first stepped into the cinema, and after struggling to find my seats (yea....I was late.....), the movie aptly started. The beginning was  abit confusing, cause no one knows what really happened, but when it flashback to the 1950s, I thought it was like My Girl that type of nice old town setting.
 
The moment the war started, I realised that the director was not as simple as what I thought. The gross, bloody images of bodies flying and guts and blood being spilled out stunned me (oh, and it justified its NC-16 rating which I never knew until I went to buy the tickets and that irritating lady asked for my IC). It was then that I sat up and I realised that the director is trying to put across a very strong message.  What shocked me even more was that my friend didn't really grimaced much about all the gore, while I was just overwhelmed (the maggots scene was sick).
 
So let me highlight some of the issues while I thought the director put across so well. I must admit that the plot takes a much secondary role in the whole movie (it follows the war! How exciting can it get?), so plot wise there's not much to comment. But the themes are amazingly highlighted and bold. In my opinion, the director was focusing on war, brotherhood (or kinship), and blind faith.
 
On the issue of war, he was great at showing us the physical horrors of war, as well as the impact that war can have on your morals, your actions. In the end, right and wrong can't be differentiated, and your more concerned about survival. Even more extreme, you will kill your friend if he is your enemy. Of course, there are always baboon commanders who cared more about the big picture but failed to realise that at the ground level, troops don't care about victory and winning, but rather to survive one more day so that they can return home. Another point is also about the kind of false optimism which soldiers seem to have when it comes to war, that it will always end soon when in fact it won't. That's like super true (think the 2 world wars, korean war, civil war...).
 
But ultimately, brotherhood was so clearly expressed. On the micro level, we are talking about the bond between brothers, the sacrifices that each other is willing to make. Even more so, the idea of kinship, about how much it overrides a lot of things. On the macro level, we are talking about Korea, the irony about them fighting among themselves, seemingly pointless and all. But I must say the show did such a good job that you can only experience it yourself....Personally, I was so touched that I did drop a few tears at the end.
 
And this leads on to ideology. Some people are so consumed by ideas that they fail to see that they are actually ignorant of a lot of issues, that their ideas are totally perverted and sick and inhumane. Blind faith is what I will say.  The very fact that a lot of conflicts around the war today are caused by blind faith makes it even more perverted in that sense.
 
And I think both actors did a fantastic job!!!
There's more about the show but I thought it was fantastic, definitely at least a 4 star rating. To some extent, I must say that its even better thanharry potter =P

A short refReshEr on Interest rateS.....

Ok, I shall recap on my interest rates post because I realised how crappy I was. I guess I need to iron out certain issues about interest rates and some of the opinions I have about them.
Firstly, let me discuss about the impacts of interest rates on both the assets market and the Foreign exhange (Forex). Now, as interest rates rise, other assets will look less valuable as the rate of return on cash is now higher than before, hence people will switch to money. In this case, there will be a reduction in demand for housing, shares, stocks and bonds (the famous inverse relationship between price of bonds and interest rates does play a part). Similarly, you can also view that a rise in interest rates will make investment by companies less profitable, and hence a decline in stocks and share prices. A rise in interest rates will also curb consumer spending as previously mentioned.
On the forex side, a rise in interest rates will lead to an increase in hot money in the economy, causing the value of the currency to rise and hence increase real wages. This rise will then lead to more imports and a reduction in exports which curb domestic demand and hence inflationary pressures. However, it will distort the country’s current account and cause it to possibly go into the red.
Now, as you can see, what I have illustrated above are the possible effects of changes in i/r If we consider this in the case of the US economy, the recent rise has not really caused much changes (on both wall street and trade). I have already mentioned about the role of expectations in the whole picture, but I’ve recently read this article in the Economist which lambasted the Fed Reserves for even bothering to lower i/r and cushion the slump, instead of letting the whole economy to readjust itself and iron out all its faults. I must agree with him to some extent that by considering cushioning the economy, you might not solve some of the inherent faults in the system and this can caused a even bigger slump just like Japan. Anyway, it is amazing how much the US economy actually mirrors that of Japan’s in the past. Let’s pray that the lost decade of Japan in the 90s will not occur to US in future (but I doubt it). Anyway, I think the 0.25% rise is more of a signal, and not just an end.
This brings me to the point about tools and targets. I am a pretty firm believable that i/r is just a tool for you to control growth, inflation and employment plus Balance of Payments (BOP). But I care more for the first 3 as I believe that growth will be what affects the standard of living for people, inflation will affect the proper functioning of the economic system while employment will affect the society as well as the amount of resources that people get to enjoy at a period in time. So, i/r is what I will consider as the more important economic tool (better than fiscal measures certainly). Of course, we must not neglect that the government does play a huge role as well in affecting the 3 above goals.
Hope I clarify some doubts and I’ve hope I got my point across strongly. =)

Reflections...

The past week is really interesting -- a lot of events happened which made me do so much reflections that I have so much to type about. So maybe let me start in chronological order.
Basically Sunday – Tuesday was a pretty slack period in camp, just the usual crap and ‘lobo’ lifestyle that I’ve come to associate 3 Signals with. However, Wednesday was pretty happening, as I had to be on standby just in case my boss wanted to move off (if you still do not know, I was involved in Exercise Mousedeer). Then I got activated on Wednesday night at around 7, but my vehicle just parked at 30 SCE until the next day 5 am before it moved off. So I spent the night talking, smsing and trying very hard to sleep in the mosquito infested 30 SCE parade square which was totally unbearable.
The worse thing was that we were supposed to cross the dumb river, but we din’t due to cat 1 so we went back, and it was more of suffocating and dying from the stupid sun before exercise cut. And I must say that I detest the two bosses of mine.
Anyway, the sad part was that today, I got caught by my CSM buying food for Mingjie. It was damn lame, especially when he started screwing Mingjie and asking him "who are you to give him permission" and MJ responded with "no one, sir". Haha, that was quite comical. And of course, the whole story of breakfast was equally funny, especially with Ernest standing behind and doing some signals. Oh well, it’s a pretty close shave and I think I shall bring in my dreamcatcher to ward myself of this kind of ‘evil’.
Camps aside, I was happy that I was mentioned in one of my friend’s blog (yupz, I read your blog on the songs =)). Hmm, it reminded me of the amazing coincidence that we had (especially for the songs, I think its real amazing….), but I must say that I do think we share certain common outlook on life.
Anyway, I’m quite glad that my sis got her 2nd Upper Honours. Lets hope that she gets either a good job or the chance to pursue her Masters now.

Some creations of mine

I'm afraid I cannot type an economic post today due to the lack of time so I'm making up for it by publishing some works of mine which I have written for fun or for application to universities/scholarships. Below is one favourite of mine in which I explored the theme of love and what I viewed it as. By the way, its for the University of Chicago.


Love is an ineffable, deep feeling of affection and solitude towards an object or a being. Since the beginning of time, humans have always been fascinated about love as it is the driving force behind many of our actions and ideas – marriage, friendship, the idea of a community and many more. However, little is known about it for no one is sure how love works as well as why its exists and this has stumped humanity for ages. I propose that “Love exists for its own existence”, and all the wonders of love are a resultant of its aim. This proposition seeks to offer some insights on the existence of love as well as how it works.
The statement implies that the continual existence of love is caused by love itself. This is true as the strong desire of love to exist continually and forever has caused love to propagate itself in all parts of the world, in humans, animals and any animate object as well as in many different forms. In my view, its desire to last for eternity has resulted in the creation of two vehicles that help to create a circular path for its existence – selfishness and selflessness. It is the interplay of this two opposites, like the Taoists’ belief of the forces of yin and yang, that has caused love to propagate and perpetuate.
Although the purpose behind love’s existence is rather selfish, it is this selfishness that has generated an opposite phenomenon, selflessness. Love has caused and inspired many selfless acts from humans and animals. Some examples include a caring mother protecting her young from danger and a true lover going to great extents to help and support his loved one. On the macro picture, love has inspired people to care about the world and their environment, even though they have no obligations. Hence, a main reason why love has survived since time immemorial is that it helps to satisfy certain emotional needs of living creatures, which will in turn ensure that there will always be a huge demand for love. This supports Say’s Law, which states that supply creates its own demand.
Yet, our inability to adequately control our selflessness will often result in acts of selfishness. There are numerous reports of people who exhibit possessive love, in which their selfless love for others results in a selfish desire to fulfill their own emotional wants and needs, and inadvertently cause them to hurt their loved ones. For example, in William Shakespeare’s Othello, Othello’s deep love for Desdemona caused him to become over possessive of her, which in turn made him prone to jealousy. This jealousy in turn drove him to doubt her and ultimately caused him to kill her. Thus, selfishness may result from selflessness. Now, there appears to be a paradox, for love seems to have caused the end of its existence. After all, many people would consider death to be the end of everything.
However, I disagree with the idea that death will result in the end of love. Instead, I believe that death or hatred sets the stage for love to grow again. In both scenarios, one will learn the value of life or love, and this will in turn awake any form of selfishness, self love. In fact, I believe that it is essential for one to be selfish in order for us to love others. There is a saying that one needs to know how to love his self in order for him to love others. Hence, selfishness must exist in order for us to acquire and cultivate ‘self love’. It is this ‘love’ for oneself that ensures we treasure our own lives, our environment, our family and our treasured belongings which in turn causes us to love our world, our friends and our kin. Thus, the ‘circle of love’ is generated and it will continue to turn, never ceasing to work and ensuring the perpetual existence of love. Similarly, the selfishness of many people has prompted them to do selfless acts, which brings us right back to square one.
Hence, I believe that the selfish desire for love to ensure its own existence has set in motion a ‘circle of love’ that has allowed it to survive to this very day. Furthermore, its ability to satisfy our emotional needs has contributed greatly to its existence as well. As our world changes with time, I would not be surprised if love evolves and creates a much more complicated mechanism to ensure its continuity, such as through the use of telepathy instead of simple physical expression.


Since I'm on love, this is a poem which I typed simply because I was real bored ....

My heart bleeds
Not with physical agony
But with mental,
Emotional, metaphysical pain
Hurting right at the core,
The Effects ever-lasting

In those blood which flows out of my heart,
In a long vicious and never-ending cycle
Sadness, confusion, love-struck, hope, bitterness
As well as a multitude of other emotions
Keep on bursting through,
Tormenting my heart in a way which physical torture fails
And I can only carry on
Struggling with the harsh realities of life – emotions

Can you feel it?
The sadness in me, flowing out like a river
Pouring out of me, engulfing others
Yet, the greatest sadness of all,
Is the lack of companions to share my woes, my deepest thoughts,
My innermost emotions.
Loneliness is a disease,
Which has haunted me,
Adding on to my pain
Whipping my soul

Grief, I must shout
Has love and friendship
Forsaken me?
Am I living in a world
Of darkness and despair,
With nothing but elements from the pandora box?

But that, could be the best thing in life I have,
For within the box,
There lies Hope,
The bringer of light
Bearer of life
In times of darkness and all
Sustaining even the most destitute.

SPIDerMan 2!!!!

Yoz, I'm back at home for a rare moment (well, luckily got nights off or else I would have died by being inside camp). Anyway, I've decided to ignore all happenings in camp as they are all so insignificant (its just eat, sleep, and work....duH!). Let me concentrate on SpidermAn 2! The movie absolutely rocks!

Ok, I've always wanted to watch spiderman 2 (eversince april) as I feel that it is a movie that explores themes which are really close to me (like sacrifice, friendship, responsibility.....certainly much lighter compared to comics like batman, daredevil and its less foreign than superman). Ok, so what happened was that I went to watch SpidermAn with a really good friend of mine who was much more skeptical about the show (as in, thought it was good but thinks that Harry Potter is much better, and I totally disagree with that).

Well, it seems to me that after watching the movie, I thought the director was fantastic. Just the action alone would have given it at least 4 stars, since the CGI was so realistic. Even dumbos will walk out of the cinema and say 'its a great movie!'. What I seriously think is the key element that elevates the movie up to 5 stars is character development that it has as well as the fact that it explores the various important themes.

For example, Spiderman was not just like the typical super hero that goes around bashing up crooks, in fact, his life is like the typical student, and in fact worse as he has to earn his own allowance and live on his own without his parents or guardian to take care of his daily needs. His story certainly resonates deeply in our hearts that even a normal dude can be a superhero, and I like the line in which Aunt May actually says that spiderman is a symbol of a hero, which everyone has deep down inside. ANd certainly that is very true! (think, I know I am like having verbal diarhorrea but that's because I am in a hurry, so think deep in your heart about all those childhood dreams and fantasies you have about heros, and good triumphing over evil).

Now, that was about heroism. I thought the movie did a real good job about the whole idea of mystery, and the whole idea why most heroes have an alias and a hidden identity. Even though Peter Parker was unmasked on the train, people were willing to keep his identity a secret. That's because what makes a hero real mystifing is because his identity is unknown. Its because of this that's why people will fantasize about how they can become like him, or how close he is in our lives. I mean, even though actors and actresses are popular, nobody aspires to be like them. But deep down, I am sure everyone aspires to be a super hero and protect the world. I was super pleased that the director did such a good job about this (I mean in all other shows, you don't see a superhero getting unmasked in public).

And Spiderman 2 absolutely did a good job of this as well as other themes, such as friendship (Parker and his best friend), trust(Parker revealing the truth to aunt may), as well as ideas on responsibility (dreams vs duty), and love (to care for someone you might need to hurt them in one form, and that might be wrong). So that's why I feel spiderman 2 absolutely deserves the 5 star rating.

Hmmm, actually I got lots more to crap but i need to go so cya!

P.S. please pardon my language as I had to type the whole chunk in less than 10 minutes.

Interest Rates.....

Ok, as I had promised, I shall present to you another major economic issue that is ongoing -- interest rates. I shall attempt to present a brief overview of the roles of interest rates as well as my own views on the recent rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserves.

To most of us common folks, the interest rate is what you will stand to gain if you put your money in the bank as well as how much more you have to pay back when you borrow money from the bank. Hence, depositors/creditors will love it when the interest rates rise while debtors/borrowers prefer the interest rates (i/r) to decline. Yet, because of this basic mindset which most people tend to have, the effects of a change in interest rates are humongous.

To economists, i/r are a valuable tool in ensuring macro-economic stability. The way it works is pretty simple. When there is a shortage in demand in the economy, lowering the i/r will help to boost both Consumption (C) and Investment (I) spending. For countries which have a floating exchange regime, the lowering of interest rates will then lead to an outflow of foreign capital, which causes the currency to depreciates and eventually boost Exports (X) while people adopt a strategy of Imports (I)-Substition. So based on the classicals model, Aggregate Demand(AD) will rise. Likewise if the government feels that inflationary pressures are building up, they will raise interest rates so as to reduce AD and hence prevent the economy from over-heating.(There isn't much use to examine the effects of i/r on economies with a fixed exchange regime since they clash. You can check this out with any A-Level Economics student about the reasons behind it.)

Ok, the above is what every A-level Economics student knows, and many have mug it like mad. However, the whole story doesn't stop here. I believe that i/r acts more of a signal to people as to how they ought to behave. The above idea of i/r effects on the economy are certainly valid, but they do not explain the whole picture, especially when you combine them with the role of expectations. Now, usually i/r is a tool to achieve the ends -- which can be to reduce unemployment or to achieve greater growth rates. In the case of unemployment, the concepts of NAIRU as well as Lucas Rational Expectations clearly shows that only demand-shocks are capable of causing a change in real income (this point is still very very much debated). Likewise, i/r can stimulate rapid growth, but empirical studies have shown that it can lead to inflationary pressures which might boost inflation (many consider excessive inflation as bad, and so do I). In my views, changes in i/r only function properly if people's expectations are in-lined with it, or that the change in i/r will not create other even more serious problems.

Therefore, this means that a sudden change in i/r will have a huge effect on the economy if it is totally unexpected. For example, I believe the 0.25% increase in i/r by the US will have little effect on the current state of the economy (although it might curb some inflation). This view has been echoed by many (even showing up on the New Paper). Certainly, I doubt the rise in i/r will affect much of the US or even the rest of the world. For the case of Singapore, you might expect our interest rates to rise (by just 0.1%?), but on the whole its insignificant as everyone has already expected it. Likewise, the US Fed Reserves will most likely do a gradual increase in i/r and hence slowly keep inflation in check. As the economy gradually experiences a rise in i/r, you can expect excessive spending on our part to reduce while savings to rise.

The other effect of a rise in i/r (its hard to decide causality here) is that people might assume that the economy is peaking out and its time to invest more. This might have a disastrous effect on inflation, yet conducive for growth. But few will make such a mistake. Anyway, I have missed up on the impact of i/r on financial markets. Personally, I feel that the stock market will experience a rise until the i/r hits close to 4%, and then maybe the market will stabilise. Personally, I feel that by early next year, in lieu of the global recovery, the US Fed Reserves will raise i/r to around 2%. Of course this is not absolute, as it is still dependent on whether other shocks come along the way.

I admit I have neglected some other ideas which I love (rules vs discretion, Keynesian vs Monetarist vs neoClassicals), as it requires too much time. I'm a rush to do things now, since I'm paying a visit to the temple. Oh yea, I won't blog next week so expect to hear from me only next next week (if I go home). So I guess all of you who are freaking out at my long posts will have peace for a long time!

A BoSoM FrienD

Heya, this is basically a short(actually its long) account of me and my real good friend. This is more of like a pre-birthday reminiscent on my part =)

For people who wants to know how he looks like, you can check it out under the below link: www.gallery.applerings.com/cgi-bin/gallery.cgi?bobby85&Cexiang

“Oei, wanna go taiwan or not?”
“Dunnoe, looks fun leh………. Some more can play like mad…..”
“Heard that there got a lot of chiobus……somemore get to slack the whole of nov….like dat then we dunt have to do a lot of shit work leh. Even better, can conveniently skip snco……”
“Hmmmmm, see first, need to ask my parents…”

That was basically the gist of the conversation which Edwin and I had in May 2002(I shall leave it up to you to figure out who said what). We were both pondering about taking part in the Taiwan Immersion Program (TIP), which we heard from Junyang, our senior, who actually said that it was real fun. But seriously speaking, the impetus for me to join the program was because I will then be able to visit a foreign country as well as tour Taiwan, a place which I had always wanted to go. So naturally, I snapped up at the opportunity of going there, even though we both had qualms about letting the Taiwanese stay over in our homes for around 2 weeks.

Hence, we eventually found ourselves embroiled in a huge tangle of mess, as we had to juggle between studying, CCAs and attending practices and rehearsals in order for us to welcome the Taiwanese. At one of our first combined schools rehearsal, we had the honour of meeting our peers from other colleges. Jingxuan (real sorry to leave you out of the whole story so far, but he’s basically my classmate, good friend of edwin and me), got captivated by some of the pretty gals from other colleges (fine, we all did!!!). Of course, there were some other charismatic people out there, but I just can’t be bothered to care much about them.

Hmm, I need to summarize a lot. Basically what happened from July to August (actually it was really just 2 whole weeks), the Taiwanese stayed over with us. I still remembered how the VJ clique went to Plaza Singapura on the first day that the Taiwanese came to our house, as well as how on day 2 me, edwin, and jingxuan went out together(it was amazing! Apparently the 3 Taiwanese themselves were super good friends as well). So, that sort of explained how we spent the next 2 weeks, really enjoying ourselves by going out, shopping and neglecting all out tutorials (I was efficient enough to clear most of them before they came, so it didn’t really affected me).

Ok, let me skip all the melodramas that were actually unfolding right before my very eyes, but instead I shall focus on the whole idea of fate (its creepy when you think of it at times). I remembered how Jx was telling me one day in school about how this funny guy from some other funny school called him to try to arrange a meeting (it failed horribly in the sense that they never met each other), as both their Taiwanese partners are quite close. I didn’t really pay much attention to the whole issue because I just thought it interesting.

So time flies and suddenly, its time for them to leave. After we viewed NDP together, we went back with them to their hotel (which was absolutely pathetic!), and some of us wanted to stay overnight, even though my teachers were strongly against it. Well, some of us did stay over and I still remembered the hide and seek that we had to play with the teachers in the hotel room. Apparently, don’t know which school’s teachers was actually trying to ensure that none of us Singaporeans stayed over in the hotel, and then this group of guys barged into our room and asked us to help them ‘shield’ the storm for awhile. Of course we gallantly agreed, and again I did not think too much about the whole issue, even though subconsciously, an impression was already forming in me.

In a short moment’s time, our promos ended and it’s now our turn to fly over to Taiwan and enjoy being the guests. I was pretty excited, certainly and I could still remember discussing with some my friends about what I think some of the people going over with me to the same school would be like.
And Hey Presto, we stepped off the plane and we were immediately ushered to a reception which included a welcome dinner. I could still remember strongly about being rushed to a table in which it was dominated by Victorians (Yupz, it was great to see so many people whom I truly missed), and out of the blue, there was this guy sitting beside me from Hwa Chong. Come to think of it, he must have felt totally out of place, sitting with an entire table full of Victorians. Apparently, his Taiwanese partner (or YangXiang), turned out to be a good friend of Jx’s buddy, Jacky. And it was that night that I met a portion of the Zi-HigH tuan. Oh, apparently Jx recognised that hwachongian being the stranger he chatted with in Singapore (refer to the top). Anyway, that was my first introduction with him, and me being such a reserved person, I din’t probe much into his life. Oh yea, his name is Cexiang.

Let me briefly described our time in Taiwan. Basically when I got to know him better (the next next day), I realised he was from Hwa Chong council (I actually failed to recognised their council badge and I thought it looked like my school’s badge, somemore the uniform colour is so similar to mine), and over the days, as we played more bridge, and went out more often, we actually learnt to enjoy each other’s company even more.

Well, a brief outlook on our schooling time in dazhi : basically wake up, go for lessons, eat, rest, lessons then party time! Yea, basically i guessed we din't exactly chat much then, but we played so much bridge, enjoyed the colD people around us, played with chan tu ji and 'Gud MorNin', suaning people around us. When we go out, its more enjoyment, although we din't really keep going out all the time as KimO and David live super far apart.

As for the streets of TaipEi, I seriously remembered all those stuff that we did, things like buying almost the same stuff (mashi-maro for our sisters), walking down shi lin, spending the night at hao jin, going to dan shui (I truly, sincerely apologised for the harm I caused you). Let me elaborate. Lets see, we almost got beaten up somewhere (remember the gangsters?), and then we shopped around SOGO (We splurged on cds, haha!), and I realised that your a Humans scholar who is freaking rich and willing to spend on some luxury stuff. Hmm, and then the whole arguments and stuff, all the stupid relationships, as well as some gong gong *** jokes. Definitely, hao jin is a night that we will all remember (either for better or for worse, haha). Dan shui was good, all the pepsi-cola, fireworks, Bali...haha. And the qIanLong emperor tour, hmm i still remembered how we wandered off to look at some real interesting and precious exhibits at the museum, and I also realised how talented you are in music=).
But all the while in Taiwan, Jx and you enjoyed a better relationship. You guys went to Yuan Shan, Xin Guan Shang Yue and plenty of others together (including the hwachong gathering), and if I’m not wrong, you guys communicate a lot (about certain issues). I guess I was never that close to ya until one night when we communicate by both phone and IRC (ur nick being dreamsafar???) Ha, I kindda miss all those cock that we talked about.

And of course, all good things had to end. We din’t really spend the whole tour together due to both of us being with our own respective communities, but we had a lot of fun on the last night (and a lot of headaches), visiting shi lin again, autographs (is it real or just fu1 yan3 one?) and so on. But I was sure, the last night certainly left an unforgettable mark in our minds. Oh, I still remember how I displaced Ms Ding to sit beside you on our return flight home.

Oh yea, before I forget, if my fading memory is accurate, you were the one who barged into the hotel room in Singapore!!! Ha!

Hmmm, I thought that we will lose contact after touching down, but apparently I was totally wrong. JNCO came and went (it totally made me shagged), but after that we still kept in close contact (thanks to the miracles of icq). Even more astonishing was the fact that 2 weeks later, I went to your house to have an equally unforgettable day of mahjong. Haha, it sure was havoc. Only later, I found out about your ‘job’ at one fullerton, and then when we decided to have a dazhi gathering for countdown, the truth at pasir ris park. Hmmm, sad that we did not played mahjong the whole night due to a lack of numbers. Hmm, and to have left you at home, I felt quite bad as well.

Super amazingly, Sandra’s visit to Singapore in January brought us even more closer. It was the first time I dine at one fullerton, and I got to meet your childhood friend (as well as introduction and formulation of the cockbin gang). Even more fun was the next day in Little India, talking to you in the hotel, shopping for gifts and eventually the dinner at Stepf’s place.

To build up on it all, after Sandra left, a few days later, you actually contacted me to watch Mu Dan Ting (AMAZING LOR…). Well, I truly treasured our friendship, and that’s the main reason why I absconded the SJ CNY celebration dinner that year. Ha, that time was real fun, and I got to meet some of your other close friends. Oh yea, sitting on those rides and touring river hongbao was kindda fun, saw so many stuff =). Of course, we really bo liao until we watched mu dan ting again on Valentine’s Day that year (Can you imagine that, 2 guys on V-day…). A great and interesting experience which I believe that neither of us will ever forget or even regret. Haha. =P

Then, the lull period started. School was real busy, especially since I had to confirm my S papers and all. On his part, he had to settle all his council work, as well as cope with studies and all. It was a period that the 2 of us literally just lost contact.

And surprises man, we got back in touch on irc. Amazing that he wanted to go oxford, while I wanted cambridge. But, we both respected each other and we just strived our best to achieve our goals. Along the way, we still met up when we go for scholarship tea sessions or we just simply discussed scholarships, econs S, bits of our lives over the phone. A true friend I must say who was also a good listener.

And I shall accelerate again to dazhi outing, where we went KTV, and you missed the next one (you went to indonesia?), after which we just talk more over the phone. In addition, army sort of broke us up.

Hmmmmmmm, the rest of the story is still evolving but the above is a basic guide to our friendship. I must really say that you are real lucky to have gone to NSPI (which I really wanted), while I went SI (its fun and slack). Hmm, glad that you always listen to my problems and woes.

Oh, before it all, there's still plenty of interludes...more ktv, mahjong sessions, my girl, jianghu...... haha.

I hope that both of us really get to fulfill our dreams of going oxbridge (all the best dude!!!), as well as that we can go back to taiwan together in 3 years time. Hope that in England we can tour the place and have as much fun! Btw, all the best in other areas of your life as well!

Really sorry if this story is pretty incomplete and stuff (I hope that it will be never-ending……..), and please pardon me for the way I changed my style. Just treat it as more of a rambling of some of my thoughts....

WeekenD b4 MouseDeer

Konbanwa! I've decided that since this is the weekend before mousedeer, I shall blog like mad(cause next week I'm stuck in camp and next next week i got guard duty on sunday, which totally sucks!). Pardon me for that rare use of vulgarity, but I totally detest the whole idea of being in camp for 3 weeks, which is totally demoralizing. Thankfully I got time off for the 21st!

So let me start by summing up the whole past week in camp. It was pretty uneventful, and I literally read, eat, sleep and watch tv the whole day. One specialist of mine even had the luxury to sleep for 14 hours in 1 day! Basically my camp is like a chalet, and amazingly, we are able to win Best Combat Support Unit and Best Signal Unit twice in a row! Another thing is that I actually met both zhiwei and gideon in camp. They came over to attend some course but it was real nice to meet and chat with them, considering how much I truly missed their company ever since those wonderful days in SI. Anyway, I shall not bore you guys with my totally boring life and I shall now move on to other more exciting stuff.

Ha, I went out with my primary school classmates today! Although only 6 of us turned up, it was still pretty fun and exciting! The last time that we went out was like last december, and I am always amazed that some of us still stick close with each other even though its not easy. In addition, they make me wonder about those friends of mine whom I have lost over the years....will I experience the same thing with my current group of friends? I hope not.

Hmm, oh yes, I'm real excited about watching Spiderman 2 tomorrow. Its the movie that I have been wanting to watch right from the start, and I am absolutely sure that it will not disappoint me!

Ok, I am afraid that this week I might not type an economic issue(actually I want to comment on interest rates, especially since the US Federal Reserves just raised it), but I felt that there's another issue which I will truly enjoy typing about!

Yupz, basically July 11 is the birthday of my bosom friend. So I shall dedicate one post just to our friendship(its also because of the fact that it is interesting and exciting that's why I'm including it down). Hope you all enjoy the short script=P